It’s no surprise the Orioles fired manager Brandon Hyde last weekend, because their season so far has been an utter disaster. After averaging 96 wins over the last two seasons, this year, despite playoff expectations, the Orioles are on pace to be 45 games worse, with an absurdly poor projected record of 51 wins and 111 losses.
Hyde’s clumsy tactics like changing the line-up drastically every day were part of the problem. And a series of early injuries to key players — including to starting pitchers Grayson Rodriguez, Kyle Bradish and Zach Eflin, and top hitters Gunnar Henderson, Colton Cowser and Jordan Westburg — presented a huge hurdle.
But the Orioles’ real problem is more basic: a flawed strategy led by GM Mike Elias of relying too heavily on contributions from inexperienced draft choices, especially hitters, while not focusing nearly enough on acquiring reliable starting pitchers. It’s now time for Orioles’ management to acknowledge that the current approach isn’t working and to develop a new strategy.
Because it wasn’t just this year. Since the end of July last season, the O’s were also below .500. Then they got swept out of the playoffs — again — by a mediocre Royals team and scored only one run in two games. Analysts warned of this weakness before the playoffs, yet leadership resisted correction.
Elias’ main strategy has been to replicate the success of his former team, the Houston Astros, who reached the AL Championship seven straight years from 2017-2023 while winning two World Series. But the Astros had unprecedented, and in fact unrepeatable, perfect luck with draft choices and amateur signings. Jose Altuve, Carlos Correa, Alex Bregman, Kyle Tucker and George Springer all became stars. Elias seems to have over-interpreted these results, becoming convinced that almost every Orioles high draft choice he made would become a major league standout.
To be fair, this approach seemed to work well — for a while. The Orioles got what in retrospect were career seasons from journeymen pitchers to bolster their young line-up that the league had not yet figured out how to handle. Yet even so, Elias’ reluctance to improve through trades late in the 2023 and 2024 seasons ahead of the playoffs — along with Hyde being outmanaged — contributed to them being swept out of the postseason without a win in both years.
Then, to the bewilderment of almost everyone in MLB circles, Elias did not attempt during the recent offseason to trade the O’s surplus of young position players for proven starting pitching. In the meantime, key division rivals pounced. The Red Sox traded for ace Garrett Crochet. The Yankees inked top free agent Max Fried. Both have been lights out this year. The O’s had a chance to get Crochet, at least, but reportedly would not trade enough precious prospects.
To make matters worse, players signed by Elias over the offseason have dramatically underperformed, to put it politely. 41-year-old Charlie Morton is 0-7. Recycled starter Kyle Gibson has an ERA over 16.00. Tyler O’Neill, signed to a nearly $50 million contract, is batting .188 with a little power. Catcher Gary Sanchez was hitting .100 before a recent injury.
Amid this dysfunction, the Orioles must establish new priorities. Go ahead and keep a core of low-cost young position players. But now the focus must be on helping this group to reach full potential while seeking more aggressive trades and signings, as well as achieving a long-term balance of proven veterans and youth, pitchers and hitters.
Take Adley Rutschman. Considered the cornerstone player of the franchise and perhaps the best young catcher in baseball until about a year ago, a hand injury diminished his ability to hit. He never got adequate time out of the lineup to recover, and since then, he’s batting just a bit over .200 with little power. It is imperative that the Orioles devote their best hitting minds toward solving Rutschman’s woes and address similar recent struggles by young teammates Jacob Westburg, Heston Kjerstad, and Coby Mayo.
As for starting pitching, Eflin and Tomoyuki Sugano are reliable, but that’s about it. Even Dean Kremer has an ERA over 5. Grayson Rodriguez won’t be back until at least June and has a worrisome elbow and other injuries.
Given incessant injuries to pitchers across baseball from throwing 95+ mph, a deep cadre of nominally reliable pitchers is probably the most important aspect of MLB success these days. The Orioles have not developed young starting pitching sufficiently. New pitching prospects, along with trades and signings, are a must.
Even after replacing Hyde, the Birds have continued their dreadful play, with their chances of making the playoffs having dwindled to less than 1%. Realistically, the focus now must be on building for next year.
Elias has not been nearly as adept at pulling off beneficial trades or major free agent signings as he has at drafting young potential. He will need to show greater ability to sign premier talent if he wants to be brought back for the 2026 season. And the O’s must take their time to find a top-flight manager for next year.
Owner David Rubenstein has rightly been hailed as a breath of fresh air after decades of the unpopular and unsuccessful Angelos regime. But now that Hyde is gone, Rubenstein has more big decisions to make, including about Elias, and the need for a more complete new strategy to start winning again.
Paul Bledsoe (@paulbledsoe) is an Orioles fan from Arlington, Virginia.
